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Research

Predicting immune protection against outcomes of infectious disease from population-level effectiveness data with application to COVID-19

Quantifying the extent to which previous infections and vaccinations confer protection against future infection or disease outcomes is critical to managing the transmission and consequences of infectious diseases. We present a general statistical model for predicting the strength of protection conferred by different immunising exposures (numbers, types, and strains of both vaccines and infections), against multiple outcomes of interest, whilst accounting for immune waning. 

Research

Assessing the Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine Immunization Schedule Change From 3+0 to 2+1 in Australian Children: A Retrospective Observational Study

In mid-2018, the Australian childhood 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine schedule changed from 3+0 to 2+1, moving the third dose to 12 months of age, to address increasing breakthrough cases of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), predominantly in children aged >12 months. This study assessed the impact of this change using national IPD surveillance data.

Research

Collecting behavioural data across countries during pandemics: Development of the COVID-19 Risk Assessment Tool

Tools that can be used to collect behavioural data during pandemics are needed to inform policy and practice. The objective of this project was to develop the Your COVID-19 Risk tool in response to the global spread of COVID-19, aiming to promote health behaviour change. We developed an online resource based on key behavioural evidence-based risk factors related to contracting and spreading COVID-19. This tool allows for assessing risk and provides instant support to protect individuals from infection.

Research

Neonatal and infant mortality after maternal influenza and pertussis vaccination: Probabilistically linked cohort study

Maternal influenza and pertussis vaccination is an important strategy to reduce morbidity and mortality in infants. Previous vaccine safety studies have mostly focused on the association between maternal vaccination and fetal death.

Research

What goes up must come down: dynamics of type 1 interferon signaling across the lifespan

Type 1 interferons (T1IFNs) are typically expressed in low concentrations under homeostatic conditions, but upon pathogenic insult or perturbation of the pathway, these critical immune signaling molecules can become either protectors from or drivers of pathology. While essential for initiating antiviral defense and modulating inflammation, dysregulation of T1IFN signaling can contribute to immunopathology, making it and its associated pathways prime targets for immune evasion and disruption by pathogens. 

Research

Prevention of rheumatic heart disease in New Zealand: High-dose subcutaneous benzathine penicillin is cost-saving compared with traditional intramuscular injections

Acute rheumatic fever is a preventable condition that can lead to chronic illness and early death. Standard prevention with 4-weekly intramuscular (IM) benzathine penicillin G (BPG) injections for ≥10 years may be associated with poor adherence. High-dose 10-weekly subcutaneous penicillin injections (SCIP) may improve adherence by reducing injection frequency.

Research

Nirsevimab immunisation of infants and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated hospitalisations, Western Australia, 2024: a population-based analysis

Christopher Peter Hannah Blyth Richmond Moore MBBS (Hons) DCH FRACP FRCPA PhD MBBS MRCP(UK) FRACP OAM BSc (Hons) GradDipClinEpi PhD Centre Head,

Research

Fine-scale maps of malaria incidence to inform risk stratification in Laos

Malaria risk maps are crucial for controlling and eliminating malaria by identifying areas of varying transmission risk. In the Greater Mekong Subregion, these maps guide interventions and resource allocation. This article focuses on analysing changes in malaria transmission and developing fine-scale risk maps using five years of routine surveillance data in Laos (2017-2021). The study employed data from 1160 geolocated health facilities in Laos, along with high-resolution environmental data. 

Research

Severe outcomes of malaria in children under time-varying exposure

In malaria epidemiology, interpolation frameworks based on available observations are critical for policy decisions and interpreting disease burden. Updating our understanding of the empirical evidence across different populations, settings, and timeframes is crucial to improving inference for supporting public health.

Research

Malaria risk stratification in Lao PDR guides program planning in an elimination setting

Malaria in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) has declined rapidly over the last two decades, from 279,903 to 3926 (99%) cases between 2001 and 2021. Elimination of human malaria is an achievable goal and limited resources need to be targeted at remaining hotspots of transmission.