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Melissa Penny PhD, PD, BSc (Hons) Professor Fiona Stanley Chair in Child Health Research melissa.penny@thekids.org.au Professor Fiona Stanley Chair
The implications of climate change for malaria eradication this century remain poorly resolved. Many studies focus on parasite and vector ecology in isolation, neglecting the interactions between climate, malaria control and the socioeconomic environment, including disruption from extreme weather. Here we integrate 25 years of African data on climate, malaria burden and control, socioeconomic factors, and extreme weather.
Malaria is a focal disease and more localized in low endemic areas. The disease is increasingly becoming a concern in urban areas in most sub-Saharan African countries. The growing threats of Anopheles stephensi and insecticide resistance magnify this concern and hamper elimination efforts. It is, therefore, imperative to identify areas, within urban settings, of high-risk of malaria to help better target interventions.
Novel malaria vector control strategies targeting the odour-orientation of mosquitoes during host-seeking, such as 'attract-and-kill' or 'push-and-pull', have been suggested as complementary tools to indoor residual spraying and long-lasting insecticidal nets. These would be particularly beneficial if they can target vectors in the peri-domestic space where people are unprotected by traditional interventions.
Malaria is a deadly disease caused by Plasmodium spp. Several blood phenotypes have been associated with malarial resistance, which suggests a genetic component to immune protection.
Malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality and is responsible for over 0.5 million annual deaths globally. During the first two decades of this century, scale-up of a range of tools was associated with significant reductions in malaria mortality in the primary risk group, young African children.
Despite substantial declines since 2000, lower respiratory infections (LRIs), diarrhoeal diseases, and malaria remain among the leading causes of nonfatal and fatal disease burden for children under 5 years of age (under 5), primarily in sub-Saharan Africa.
Namibia, a low malaria transmission country targeting elimination, has made substantial progress in reducing malaria burden through improved case management, widespread indoor residual spraying and distribution of insecticidal nets. The country's diverse landscape includes regions with varying population densities and geographical niches, with the north of the country prone to periodic outbreaks.
Climatic conditions are a key determinant of malaria transmission intensity, through their impacts on both the parasite and its mosquito vectors. Mathematical models relating climatic conditions to malaria transmission can be used to develop spatial maps of climatic suitability for malaria. These maps underpin efforts to quantify the distribution and burden of malaria in humans, enabling improved monitoring and control.
In recent decades, field and semi-field studies of malaria transmission have gathered geographic-specific information about mosquito ecology, behaviour and their sensitivity to interventions. Mathematical models of malaria transmission can incorporate such data to infer the likely impact of vector control interventions and hence guide malaria control strategies in various geographies.